必然 (2016)

《必然》是2016年由凯文·凯利编写的非科幻作品，它预测了十二种将在未来三十年改变人类的技术。

摘要

凯利在书中提到，很多在未来三十年即将发生的事情都是不可避免的。 我们的未来将会有更多的屏幕，跟踪技术，当然隐私也会更少。 凯利在书中提出了十二种趋势，它们将会永远改变我们工作，学习和交流的方式：

服务的变化：从固定的产品转变为不停升级的服务和订阅智能化：作出一切都聪明多使用廉价的强大AI，我们得从云端

流化：一切都依赖于实时发生且不可停止的数据流

屏幕普遍化：所有的表面都将是屏幕

资源访问化：把私人资产组成的社会，转变为人们不停索取各种服务的社会。

共享：大规模地共享合作。 凯写道，"我认为，如果给人类的当下的共享程度打个分，我们只能从十分中拿到两分。"

过滤：为了达到我们的欲望，人们将更多地攫取个人隐私重组：把当下的商品拆分成更多部件，并把它们重新组成各种新的商品交互性：电脑将融入生活的方方面面，人们将把电脑的运用发挥到极致跟踪：为了公民和消费者的利益，跟踪和监控将无处不在

提问：提出一个好问题将比一个好答案更重要

新世纪开始：人们将构建一个所有人类和机器紧密交织的星球系统

The Inevitable is a 2016 nonfiction book by Kevin Kelly that forecasts the twelve technological forces that will shape the next thirty years.

Summary

According to Kelly, much of what will happen in the next thirty years is inevitable. The future will bring with it even more screens, tracking, and lack of privacy. In the book he outlines twelve trends that will forever change the ways in which we work, learn and communicate: The chapters are organized by these forces.

Becoming: Moving from fixed products to always upgrading services and subscriptions

Cognifying: Making everything much smarter using cheap powerful AI that we get from the cloud

Flowing: Depending on unstoppable streams in real time for everything

Screening: Turning all surfaces into screens

Accessing: Shifting society from one where we own assets to one where instead we will have access to services at all times

Sharing: Collaboration at mass scale. Kelly writes, "On my imaginary Sharing Meter Index we are still at 2 out of 10."

Filtering: Harnessing intense personalization in order to anticipate our desires

Remixing: Unbundling existing products into their most primitive parts and then recombining in all possible ways

Interacting: Immersing ourselves inside our computers to maximize their engagement

Tracking: Employing total surveillance for the benefit of citizens and consumers

Questioning: Promoting good questions is far more valuable than good answers

Beginning: Constructing a planetary system connecting all humans and machines into a global matrix

Critical response

Kirkus Reviews notes that "Kelly’s arguments ring true, and his enthusiasm [about the future] is contagious". Publishers Weekly also highlights that this book reflect Kelly's "optimistic and arguably idealistic view" and that he "chooses to elide discussions of the specific downsides that likely will accompany the changes he describes. Kelly's stated goal is 'to uncover the roots of digital change so that we can embrace them.' The book effectively identifies these roots, but in omitting critical discussion of them, it leaves the reader inadequately equipped to thoughtfully embrace or engage with them."